Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Jan 2003
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 243 (S19W60)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C5.8/Sf event occurring
at 05/0617 UTC. Regions 242 (S08E20) and 244 (S23E27) were
responsible for several low level B and C-class flares during the
period. All three of these regions slowed from previous days growth
trend with little change noted in areal spot coverage or magnetic
complexity during the period. A 23 degree disappearing solar
filament began to erupt at approximately 05 0900 UTC with an
associated CME that does not appear to have an earth-bound
trajectory. A bright surge just beyond the east limb (with a radial
vector of .26 degrees) occurred at 05/0727 UTC which is believed to
be old returning region 226. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 242 has a very slight chance of producing a low
level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Jan 148
- Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 150/150/155
- 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 009/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
