Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs detected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (06 –
08 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated high latitude active period. ACE satellite wind speeds
were steady between 400 to 450 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (06 –
08 February).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 103
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/01/01
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01