Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Feb 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1043 (N23W46)
produced an A8 x-ray event at about 0200Z which was associated with
a faint CME. A second B2 flare occurred at 1338Z from a region on
the northeast limb. Newly numbered Region 1044 (N18W36) produced a
B3 xray event at 1903Z, but is a small, unipolar group so far. The
northern hemisphere coronal hole is nearing center disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (6-8 February), with only a slight
chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day 1 (6 February). Unsettled to active
conditions with a slight chance for minor storming are expected for
days 2 and 3 (7-8 February). The increase in activity is forecast
due to possible effects from the CME observed on 03 February, as
well as the coronal hole mentioned in part 1A.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 078
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 080/083/085
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 005/005-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor storm 01/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/40/40
Minor storm 01/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05