Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C4 x-ray flare at
05/1518Z from Region 1363 (S21W09). Region 1363 continues to grow in
size and areal coverage but has lost some of it’s magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma). Three coronal mass ejections were observed
during the period but none appear to have an Earth directed
component.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(06-08 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(06-08 December).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 158
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 004/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 02/02/02
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 14/14/14
Minor storm 09/09/09
Major-severe storm 03/03/03