Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. New Regions 1132
(N12W15), a Dro-Beta type, and Region 1133 (N14E58), an Hrx-Beta
type, spot groups were numbered today. Occasional B class x-ray
events were observed during the period. Region 1132 produced the
periods largest activity with a B5 class x-ray event at 24/2111Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for isolated C class events
from Region 1132 for the next three days (06-08 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (06-07 December). Day three
(08 December) is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight
chance for isolated active conditions late in the period. The
increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 088
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 089/089/089
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05