Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 August 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1532 (S18W64) produced a
few nominal C-class x-ray events. No CMEs were observed and no new
active regions were numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (6-8 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (6-7 August). Unsettled to
active conditions are forecast for day 3 (8 August), due to an
anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 4 August.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 134
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 006/005-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/25