Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity remained very low. New region 1094
(N25W57) was numbered today. Region 1094 is a Cso beta sunspot
group. Region 1093 (N11E58) produced several B-class flares during
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Regions 1093
and 1094.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels in
response to CME’s observed on 01 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet with an isolated chance of unsettled
levels at high latitudes during the next three days (06 – 08 August).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 083
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 026/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 009/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01