Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours.  The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field  is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for
isolated active periods on day one (06 August) due to effects of a
recurring coronal hole.  Quiet conditions are expected on days two
and three (07 – 08 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 066
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01