Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Aug 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Aug 05 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z

to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today’s largest event was a

C4/Sf at 0517 UTC from Region 57 (S07W53). The Region showed some

growth in the central part of the group and is a magnetic beta-gamma

region due to some weak polarity mixing in a predominantly bipolar

group. New Region 62 (S05W23) emerged on the disk today as a small

simple C-type region. The remaining active regions were quiet,

stable, and largely unchanged. There were indications of a new group

rotating around east limb at N09. A small filament near N00E35

disappeared sometime during the past 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

mostly low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated M-class

event from Region 57 over the next three days.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase

to mostly unsettled with some isolated active periods is expected on

the second and third days in response to a favorably positioned

coronal hole.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

Class M    35/35/35

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Aug 142

Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  140/140/135

90 Day Mean        05 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  012/016

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  007/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  007/012-012/015-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/30/35

Minor storm           15/20/20

Major-severe storm    05/05/10

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/30/35

Minor storm           15/20/25

Major-severe storm    05/05/10