Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only B-class flares were
observed. Region 1185 (N23E50) increased from 50 millionths to
approximately 100 millionths in the past 24 hours. Region 1183
(N14W54) decreased from 90 millionths to approximately 20 millionths
in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (06 – 08 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The Ace spacecraft
observed an IP shock at 05/1804Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(06 – 08 April) in response to the IP shock mentioned above and
coronal hole high speed effects.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 109
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01