Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 September 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
September 4, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 1105 (N18W36) and
1101 (N12W70) produced several B-class x-ray events during the
period. The largest event, an impulsive B6 flare, occurred at
04/07Z. A filament was observed on SDO AIA 193 lifting from the
north west quadrant at 04/1430Z. A limb event CME was visible in
SOHO LASCO C3 shortly after with an estimated speed of 368 km/s. The
same event was visible on the STEREO-A coronagraph and produced a
partial halo in the southeast quadrant.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next 3 days (5-7 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions for the next 3 days (5-7 September) due to recurrent
coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 082
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/50/50
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.