Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flares during the forecast period (05-07
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet during the forecast period (05-07
October).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 110
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05