Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1109 (N21W93) produced
a C2/1f event at 04/1635Z as it continues its rotation around the
west limb of the Sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled
conditions for days one and two (05-06 October). Any increase in
activity is expected due to a possible weak coronal hole high speed
stream. Day three (07 October) is expected to be at quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 076
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01