Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A sudden impulse of 18 nT occurred
at the Boulder magnetometer at 04/0422Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quit for the next three days (05-07 October).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 071
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 070/069/069
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01