Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1339 (N19E45)
produced two M-class flares during the past 24 hours; an M2 at
03/2336Z and an M1/Sf at 04/2040Z. Region 1339 continues to dominate
the disk in terms of sunspot area (about 1540 millionths) and
complexity (Fkc beta-gamma-delta). The region did not show a strong
growth or decay trend. A fast, asymmetric full halo CME was observed
to enter the LASCO C2 field of view at 03/2312Z and had an estimated
plane of sky speed of about 1100 km/s. Observations from the STEREO
spacecraft indicate this was a back-sided event. An additional CME
was observed in the C2 coronagraph at 04/0248Z off the east limb.
STEREO-B coronagraph observations appeared to show this as a full
halo CME and post-eruption loops were visible extending above the
east limb in the GOES SXI imagery. These observations suggest a
source that is just behind the east limb. Region 1338 (S14E28)
continues to be of moderate size (about 240 millionths) but was
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-flares are likely with Region 1339 as the
most probable source although the region behind east limb could also
contribute. There is a slight chance for an additional major flare
event from Region 1339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A proton enhancement was observed at
the GOES satellites, beginning at about 0100Z and rising to a peak
of 3.6 PFU (greater than 10 MeV) at 0905Z. The flux levels slowed
decreased thereafter.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (05-06
November). A slight increase in activity is predicted due to a small
but favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected to
prevail for the third day (07 November).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 164
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 165/165/170
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 007/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01