Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A
glancing blow is possible from this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 – 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from today’s CME associated with the M2/1N flare.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 120
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 006/005-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/15
Minor storm 01/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/35/20
Minor storm 10/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/15/10