Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares
were observed from Region 1164 (N23W14). This region was classified
as an Ekc type spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic
characteristics. Region 1166 (N09E55) more than tripled in size
over the past 24 hours and the number of spots doubled. Region 1166
was classified as an Eac type spot group with Beta magnetic
characteristics. Region 1168 (N24W73) emerged on the disk as a
small bipolar group. Two East limb CMEs were observed in both SOHO
LASCO and STEREO imagery, although neither appeared to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
More C-class flares are expected from Regions 1164 and 1166, with a
chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A waning coronal hole
high speed stream remained geoeffective and solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was approximately 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next three days
(05-07 March). Model guidance suggests a possible arrival on day
two (06 March) of an Earth-directed CME observed early on 03 March.
This slow-moving CME is expected to bring a slight chance for major
storm conditions at high latitudes. Activity levels are anticipated
to decrease on day three (07 March).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 127
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 010/012-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/05
Minor storm 05/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05