Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S21W25) produced
a C1 at 03/2242Z. This region remains a D-type group with a beta
magnetic classification. All other numbered regions remained stable.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for a M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The ACE spacecraft
detected an interplanetary shock passage at 04/1958Z. Solar winds
jumped from around 325 km/s to 455 km/s, density increased, and the
IMF Bt went from 5nT to 20 nT. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was
observed at 04/2045Z (54 nT) on the Boulder USGS magnetometer. This
signature is consistent with the arrival of a CME. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions,
and isolated major storming at high-latitudes, for day one (05
June). The source for the activity is a combination of continued
CME effects, and the arrival of a geoeffective coronal hole
high-speed stream. For day two (06 June) the geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.
By day three (07 June) mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected
as the activity subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 103
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 102/100/098
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/35/25
Minor storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01