Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515
(S17W23) produced an M5/2b flare at 04/0955Z along with occasional
low-level M-class flares including an M2/Sn at 04/0437Z associated
with a 150 sfu Tenflare. Spot and penumbral development was evident
in the leading half of the region and it retained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Coronal mass ejections
(CME) were associated with the flare activity in Region 1515, but
the bulk of the ejecta was directed southward, out of the ecliptic
plane. Region 1513 (N17W36) produced an M1/2n flare at 04/1639Z
associated with Types II (estimated shock velocity 807 km/s) and IV
radio sweeps and a 200 sfu Tenflare. This event was also associated
with a CME that may have had an Earthward component, but further
analysis will be required to determine potential geoeffectiveness.
Region 1513 showed no significant changes and retained its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 1518 (N09E65) and
1519 (S14E76) rotated into view and were numbered late in the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate through the period (05 – 07 July) with a chance for an
isolated X-class flare from Region 1515.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with
active periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data
indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were in the 463 to 601 km/s range
and IMF Bz was variable in the +6 to -5 nT range. Today’s observed
Penticton 10.7 cm flux reading (163 sfu) was flare-enhanced. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (05 –
07 July) with a chance for active levels as the CH HSS gradually
subsides. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to
significantly disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 163
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 007/008-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 30/15/30
Major-severe storm 30/10/30