Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1242 (N18W82)
produced two low-level B-class flares at 04/1252Z and 04/1656Z.
Region 1244 (N16W53) showed an increase in area and was classified
as a Dao spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region
1243 (N17W19) showed a slight decrease in area and spots and was
classified as a Cso-beta group. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (05-07 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on days one and two
(05-06 July). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels
at high latitudes, are expected on day three (07 July). The increase
in activity is due to an expected recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream and a possible CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed
on LASCO C3 at 03/0142Z.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 085
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 084/082/080
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01