Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1084 (S19W32) was
quiet and stable. A new, emerging flux region was observed near
N19W38.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days (05 – 07 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocity was steady at
about 600 km/s through 04/0700Z when speeds gradually decayed to
near 500 km/s by the end of the summary period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (05 – 07 July).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 072
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01