Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 Jul 2009
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1024 (S27E02)
emerged early in the period and produced numerous B-class events
during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a B8 at 0437Z.
The group grew rapidly and is currently a D type sunspot region with
an area of about 140 millionths. The magnetic analysis showed a beta
group with a single, East-West oriented polarity inversion line. The
frequency and intensity of flare activity from the region appeared
to be decreasing slightly during the last four hours of the period.
The remainder of the solar disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly very low, but there is a chance for an isolated
C-class flare during the next three days (5-7 July) from Region
1024, especially if it continues to grow.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (5-7 July).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 071
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
