Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1386 (S17W87) and 1392
(N20W04) each produced C1 x-ray flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (5-7 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (5 January). Conditions are expected
to increase on day 2 (6 January), with unsettled conditions possible
associated with a forecasted solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC).
On day 3 (7 January), the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) is expected to produce unsettled and active conditions,
with a possible minor storm at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 136
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 000/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 004/005-007/008-013/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/35
Major-severe storm 10/10/40