Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels during the period. A
C1/Sf was observed from Region 1142 (S12W05) at 03/2335Z while
Region 1141 (N35W64) produced a C1 at 04/0325Z. During the period,
Region 1141 grew in both area and extent while developing penumbra
on both poles. Region 1142 decreased slightly in area and extent,
but increased in spot count. Both these regions retained a bi-polar
magnetic configuration. Region 1140 (N34E14) remained relatively
unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low to low levels during the forecast period (05
– 07 January) with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (05 January) of the
forecast period. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to
unsettled levels on days 2 and 3 (06 – 07 January) as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream begins to disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 091
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 092/090/090
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01