Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. A six degree
long filament eruption was visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, first
observed at about 03/2031Z. The filament was centered near N25W27,
just to the northeast of Region 1410 (N16W44). SOHO LASCO C2
imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the north limb of the disk,
first visible at 04/0836Z. At this time, the CME does not appear to
have an Earthward-directed component. New Region 1414 (S06W19)
emerged on the disk as a simple B-type beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (05 –
07 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels at middle latitudes
while active to minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes.
ACE satellite observations indicated a steady increase in wind
velocities through the period from about 400 km/s to near 460 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary
much beyond +/- 5 nT for the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (05 –
07 February).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 107
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01