Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 Feb 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1043 (N26W33)
remains stable and has not produced any significant activity within
the past 24 hours. The return of old region 1040 remains evident in
EIT and SXI imagery, however, no spots have been reported. There is
a coronal hole visible in the northeast sector of the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar Activity is expected to remain
very low with only a slight chance for a C-class event for the next
three days (5-7 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with two periods of unsettled
conditions from 04/0000Z-04/0300Z and 04/0600Z-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day 1 (5 February). An increase to
unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions is expected on
day 2 (6 February), and unsettled to active conditions with a slight
chance for minor storming is expected on day 3 (07 February). The
increase in activity is forecast due to possible effects from the
CME observed on 02 February, as well as the coronal hole mentioned
in part 1A.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 074
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 075/077/080
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/35
Minor storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/25/40
Minor storm 01/15/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05