Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1130 (N12W83)
was classified as an Hsx-Alpha type spot group. Region 1131 (N30E40) became more complex overnight and was classified as a Cao-Beta type spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels with a chance for a C-class X-ray event during the
next three days (5-7 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet during the next three days (5-7 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 087
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 087/089/089
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 00/00/01