Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for isolated
active conditions, for days one and two (05-06 December) due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Conditions are expected
to return to quiet levels for day three (07 December).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 072
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 000/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/05
Minor storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01