Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 August 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1539 (S22E31) produced a
long duration C3/sf x-ray flare which began at 04/1104Z and ended at
04/1649Z. An associated limb event CME was observed in SOHO LASCO as
well as by STEREO coronagraphs, with an estimated speed of 905 km/s.
ENLIL depicts trajectory of the transient between Earth and STEREO
B, with a glancing blow expected beyond the forecast period. No new
active regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class over the next 3 days
(5-7 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be primarily quiet over the next 3 days (5-7 August).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 139
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 000/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05