Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. New Region
1093 (N10E63) produced a few B-class flares as it rotated into view
and was classified as a Cao-type group with a beta magnetic
configuration. Region 1092 (N14W15) was quiet and stable during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1093.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels due to a CME passage associated with a long-duration C3 flare
on 01 August. The major storm levels occurred during 03/2100 –
04/0300Z and were associated with increased solar wind velocities
(peak 657 km/s), increased IMF BT (peak 18 nT), and a sustained
period of southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -13 nT). Activity was at
unsettled to minor storm levels after 04/0300Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased to normal to
moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels until midday on day 1
(05 August). Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor
storm levels with a chance for major storm levels beginning midday
on 05 August due to the expected arrival of a CME associated with a
large filament disappearance on 01 August. Activity is expected to
decrease to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 2 (06 August) as
the CME passage continues. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels is expected on day 3 (07 August).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 081
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 082/084/084
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 014/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 027/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 030/035-020/020-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 40/25/05
Major-severe storm 20/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/25
Minor storm 45/30/10
Major-severe storm 30/10/01