Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for
isolated active periods on days one and two of the forecast period
(05 – 06 August) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
becomes geoeffective. Day three (07 August) is expected to be
quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 066
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01