Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the period. A new
region that has not yet emerged around the east limb produced a pair
of M1 flares at 31/1508Z and 31/1808Z. A CME associated with the
first of the two events was visible in NASA SOHO LASCO C2 imagery as
well as on STEREO A, but appears not be a Earth directed trajectory.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to moderate
with M-class flares likely to reoccur over the next 3 days (1-3
November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period as
waning CH HSS effects lingered.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (1-3 November).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 138
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01