Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1117 (N22W83) produced
two C-class events during the period. The largest of these was a C5
flare at 31/0431Z. Region 1120 (N40E53) showed an increase in areal
coverage and was classified as a Cro-beta spot group. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for days one and two (01-02 November). Activity is
expected to decrease to very low levels on day three (03 November)
as Region 1117 rotates off the solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with a slight chance for a
minor storm period at high latitudes, on day one (01 November). The
increase in activity is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels, with active levels at high latitudes, on day two
(02 November). Predominantly quiet levels are expected on day three
(03 November).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 15/15/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 081
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 079/078/078
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01