Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Oct 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
November 1, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. New-cycle polarity Region 1007 (N34E04) was simply structured and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated a subsiding recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased from 729 to 567 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (01 – 03 November).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 31 Oct 068
  • Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 069/069/069
  • 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/05/05
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/10/10
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.