Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 921 (S07E44) has increased in area to approximately 120 millionths and is now classified as a beta gamma magnetic group. New Region 922 (S15E58) was numbered today. At 31/0518 UTC, LASCO C3 imagery showed a halo CME with an approximate plane of sky speed at 390 km/s. This CME is likely a backsided event and therefore, not geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-flare activity is possible from Region 921.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 31 Oct 080
• Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 002/005-002/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/20
• Minor storm 10/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01