Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Oct 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
October 31, 2005
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Oct 2005
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 31 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity continued at very low levels. A B8 flare was observed at 31/1643Z from near S03 on the east limb. This area of bright emission on the southeast limb is likely the return of old Region 814 (S08, L=228). A new bipolar sunspot group was numbered today as Region 819 (S09E26). This spot group emerged in close proximity to Region 818 (S08E32), which is also a small beta group in a slow growth phase.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from the tightly grouped Regions 818 and 819. A C-class flare is also possible from old active Region 814, which is rotating into view on the southeast limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The most disturbed conditions were associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz that began at around 31/0900Z and persisted through the remainder of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 03 November.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 31 Oct 078
  • Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 080/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 008/010-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/20
  • Minor storm 05/01/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/25
  • Minor storm 10/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.