Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. New
Regions 1493 (N15E64) and 1494 (S16E69) were numbered overnight and
have each produced several low-level C-class x-ray events. New
Region 1495 (S12E19) was also numbered today but has not produced
any flare activity as of yet. No Earth-directed CME’s were observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (01 – 03 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (01 – 02 June).
Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active
periods are expected late on day three (03 June) due to the
anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 117
Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 31 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 004/005-004/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/30