Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1076 (S19E07)
was numbered today and is a beta magnetic classification. No flares
were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with one
reporting period at 30/2100Z of minor storm conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate the continued
influence from the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speeds have increased through the period from 500 km/s to above 600
km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations of +/- 6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for the next three days (01-03 June) due to the coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 072
Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 31 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01