Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 31, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 31 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S10W83)
produced 5 C-class flares, including a C6.5/Sf at 31/0028 UTC. No
significant development was observed from any of the regions on the
visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 618 may still produce C-class flares before
disappearing tomorrow behind the west limb. Region 621 (S15E38) is
capable of C-class flares as well.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed has
slowly increased over the past four days from 350 km/s to about 500
km/s, indicating the possible beginning effects of a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for all three days (1-3 June),
with isolated minor storm conditions on 1 and 2 June from the
effects of the geoeffective coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun

  • Class M 20/10/10
  • Class X 05/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 31 May 095
  • Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 100/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 31 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 011/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 015/015-015/015-012/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/20
  • Minor storm 20/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 30/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.