Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1176
(S16W51) produced a C2/Sf flare at 31/1535Z. Region 1183 (N15E14)
produced a C1 flare at 31/0202Z. Both regions exhibited gradual
decay during the period. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (01 – 03 April) with a chance for moderate levels
(isolated M-class).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (01 April) due
to possible coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels during days 2 – 3 (02 – 03
April).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 113
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01