Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on 01 August due to continued coronal hole effects. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 02 – 03 August.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 31 Jul 068
• Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 010/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 008/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01