Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jul 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
July 31, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jul 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jul 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at approximately 0300Z, 31 July. Several hours later solar wind speed increased to 550 – 600 km/s due to the presence of a high speed coronal hole stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods possible for the next 48 hours (01-02 August). This activity is due to a coronal hole high speed stream. As the high speed stream rotates past its geoeffective location, geomagnetic activity should decline to quiet conditions for the last day of the forecast period (03 August).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 31 Jul 072
  • Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 075/075/070
  • 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 003/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 015/020-008/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/15
  • Minor storm 20/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 25/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.