Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jul 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jul 2003
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels. Flare
activity was limited to several B-class events that were attributed
to Region 422 (N14W80). Region 423 (S19W03) was newly numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm
levels. The recurrent high speed coronal hole stream continues to
be geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the first two days
of the forecast period. Minor storm conditions are possible during
nighttime for the first day of the interval. Day three should see a
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
C
- lass M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 31 Jul 102
- Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 105/110/115
- 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 024/029
- Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 024/029
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/25
- Minor storm 20/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/35/25
- Minor storm 25/20/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
