Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (01-03 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled conditions from
30/21Z until 31/00Z, before decreasing to quiet levels for the
remainder of the day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which
began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu on 28/0205Z,
dropped below the 10 pfu threshold and ended at 31/0635Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (01-02 February), and
quiet to unsettled on day 3 (03 February) due to anticipated CH HSS
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 117
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 004/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01