Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1150 (S20E24) showed no significant changes and
remains a D-type group with a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (01-03
February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (01 February). Quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected on
days 2 and 3 (02-03 February), as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 081
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 005/005-008/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/30
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/35
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05