Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed during the period. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (01 – 03 Feb).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 31 Jan 069
• Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 01/01/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01