Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 31 2101 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 1899

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind data from ACE show a marked increase in velocity, density, magnetic field and temperature. These observations are consistent with the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec-30 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Dec 072
• Predicted 30 Dec-30 Dec 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-30 Dec 008/012-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-30 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 15/15/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05