Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 31 Jan 078
• Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 001/002
• Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 003/005-003/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01