Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 31 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 729 (S10E18), a
new region numbered today, produced a C1.3 at 31/1052 UTC. Other
regions did not exhbit significant development. An apparent
backsided CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 31/0918
UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 727 (S09W53) and 729 may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active from the continuing
influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at a high
level.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 1 February from the residual
effects of elevated solar wind speed. Activity should subside to
quiet to unsettled levels on 2-3 February.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 31 Jan 086
- Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 085/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 010/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 012/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
