Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 31, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 31 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 729 (S10E18), a
new region numbered today, produced a C1.3 at 31/1052 UTC. Other
regions did not exhbit significant development. An apparent
backsided CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 31/0918

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 727 (S09W53) and 729 may produce C-class

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active from the continuing
influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at a high

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 1 February from the residual
effects of elevated solar wind speed. Activity should subside to
quiet to unsettled levels on 2-3 February.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 31 Jan 086
  • Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 010/016
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 012/020-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.