Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
January 31, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 31 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 549 (N13E70)
continued to produce B and C-class flares. The largest flare was a
C4 at 31/0622 UTC. This region is still close to the limb but
appears to be a D-type sunspot group of moderate size. New Region
498 (N06E30) was also numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional small flares are expected in Region 549. There is a
chance of a small M-class flare in this region as well.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under
the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the possibility of
isolated minor storm periods as the coronal hole induced disturbance

III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 31 Jan 094
  • Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 100/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 019/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 015/020-015/020-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 50/50/50
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.